Every once in a while, common sense smacks you right between the eyes, and it comes from a place you never expect it to come from. Case in point, this blog story:
Obviously those calculations assume that our past experiences do a good job of predicting what happens next. And this is good news. Really, really, good news... ...It’s good news because I used to be afraid of lots of stuff that never happened in the past. For example, I have never died from a nuclear attack, but now I understand that risk to be zero.
Read on, and prepared to be enlightened - regardless of your position.