Battleground States Shifting

Posted by on October 24, 2012 1:43 am
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Categories: 2012 Campaign

LEE’S SUMMIT, OCTOBER 24, 2012 – The battle over the remaining key states is getting tighter and most of the Battleground states are moving in Romney’s direction.  CNN reported yesterday evening that rumors indicated that the Obama campaign was removing – at least – their key personnel from North Carolina and the speculation was that they were moving to Ohio.

Today’s reports show Ohio at a virtual tie at 48% for both Obama and Romney:  “The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Ohio Voters, taken the night after the final presidential debate, shows both President Obama and Mitt Romney attracting 48% of the vote.”  They key analysis of the Rasmussen poll is that “Four percent (4%) of Republicans remain uncommitted to one of the major candidates. Only one percent (1%) of Democrats fall into that category, along with 12% of voters not affiliated with either of the major parties.”

graph of polling BattlegroundStates10-24-2012 Rasmussen

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Iowa, another key state that voted for Obama last election is now up for grabs with both candidates currently at 48%.  Rasmussen analysts say that: “Earlier this month, the president held a slight 49% to 47% edge over his GOP challenger.”  The early voting in Iowa started in late September and 32% of the ballots are in with Obama leading 56% to 41% – Early voting push may help Obama solidify the state since the move for Romney is coming in the last two weeks of the election cycle.

The Daily Swing State Tracking Poll has Romney leading 50% to 46% today:  Romney’s lead started on October 18th.  Romney has lead 13 out of the last 16 daily tracking polls.

graph of Daily Swing StateTracking 10-24-2012 Rasmussen

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Looking at the movement of the polls and the Electoral College map one can see that there are several paths for Romney and Obama to get to 270 Electoral votes.  The worst case scenario is that both can end up at 269 Electoral votes.  If that happens, the House of Representatives elects the President with each delegation (50) casting only one vote – this would be considered a plus for Romney.  However, the Senate selects the Vice President and assuming that at best it would be a tie (if not clearly a Democrat victory) Vice President Joe Biden would cast the final vote and thus selecting a Romney / Biden presidency:  That would be a very interesting 4 years.

Map of Electoral College 10-24-2012 Rasmussen

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Please don’t leave it to everyone else; come out and vote on November 6th, 2012.

Respectfully Submitted
The Lee’s Summit Conservative