LEE’S SUMMIT, NOVEMBER 5, 2012 – ABC / Washington Post, Gallup, CNN, PEW all show a very tight race going into tomorrow’s election – the final and only poll that counts. Florida, Michigan – yes Michigan – and Virginia all on the Romney column; but the question remains: Where are Ohio, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania?
- ABC / Washington Post: Obama 49%, Romney 48%
- Gallup Presidential: Obama 48%, Romney 49%
- Gallup Swing States : Obama 48%, Romney 48%
- CNN: Obama 49%, Romney 49% [Polled 41% D, 29% I, 30% R weighting D+11]
- PEW: Obama 48%, Romney 45% [D+6]
All of these polls leave us with the question: What is the turnout truly going to be? The combined national polls show Obama at 47.5% and Romney at 47.3% – in my 40 years of political interest (since the Nixon resignation) I’ve never seen a race this tight.
In Florida the Times-Union/InsiderAdvantage poll says that Romney is ahead 52% to 47% in part thanks to a strong lead (25-points) with Independent voters in the state of Florida. The breakdown in the Florida poll is interesting:
- 18-29-year old: Obama 67%, Romney 32%
- 30-44-year old: Obama 40%, Romney 59%
- 45-64-year old: Obama 44%, Romney 54%
- 65+: Obama 40% – 57%
It’s an interesting demographic breakdown. Obama is still strong with the younger generations, but he is in trouble with the rest of the population; those who’ve seen promises of hope, change, and a better tomorrow turn out to be empty promises.
The key states as of the latest polls available:
- Real Clear Politics (RCP) – Obama 48.2%, Romney 47.6%
- RCP – Obama 47.7%, Romney 49.5%
- Rasmussen – (10/26/2012) Obama 48%, Romney 50%
- Times-Union/InsiderAdvantage (11/4/2012) – Obama 47%, Romney 52%
The Real Clear Politics poll is an average of the polls, the Times-Union poll is one of the polls taken but it is the latest coming out on Sunday November 4.
- RCP – Obama 48.8%, Romney 45.8%
- Rasmussen (11/1/2012) – Obama 48%, Romney 49%
- RCP – Obama 50.2%, Romney 47.4%
- Rasmussen – Obama 50%, Romney 48%
- New Hampshire
- RCP – Obama 49.7%, Romney 47.7%
- Rasmussen – Obama 48%, Romney 50%
- North Carolina
- RCP – Obama 46.2%, Romney 49.2%
- Rasmussen (10/27/2012) Obama 46%, Romney 52%
- RCP – Obama 49.6%, Romney 46.8%
- Rasmussen (11/5/2012) – Obama 49%, Romney 49%
- RCP – Obama 48.0%, Romney 47.7%
- Rasmussen (11/5/2012) – Obama 48%, Romney 50%
- Obama 50.4%, Romney 46.2%
- Rasmussen (11/1/2012) – Obama 49%, Romney 49%
Potentially important states:
- Susquehanna Poll (11/4/2012) – Obama 47%, Romney 47%
- Foster McCollum White Baydoun – Obama 46.24%, Romney 46.86%
Carville back in 1992 had it right (it’s the economy, stupid!), unfortunately politicians can’t understand the importance of fiscal discipline. The “it’s not fair” mantra continues to drive the discussion in Washington – but it never is the mantra around anyone’s dinner table who manages a family budget.
The “Mom, I want…” comment is likely to be met with the sobering retort “How does it feel to want?” when it comes to those things that are clearly outside the family budget. There are $23 million people looking for work today. The economy is truly near the cliff of no return. Greeks who march in the streets protesting austerity measures are met with a Parliament that has come to the realization: There is no money.
We are not at that very same point; yet!
All the campaigns, all the polls boil down to one simple question.
We are close, and as we prepare to vote tomorrow we have to make a very tough decision:
Do we want someone in government that believes in large government and has no business experience in the real world, or do we want someone that has the business understanding of the economy – someone who will reduce wasteful regulations, needless government expenditures, and reduce the size of the Federal Government’s footprint on American Business?
The American Economy powers the government’s spending. If the economy is weak, so is the government. If the economy is strong and growing we can reduce our outrageous national debt, and once it gets back to something manageable, then we can look to see who we can help; but right now we can’t even help ourselves.
Vote wisely on Tuesday November 6
The Lee’s Summit Conservative