Picture of Iowa for the Caucuses on January 3, 2012Lee’s Summit, December 27, 2011 – After 8 months of Republican Debates and a number of casualties between then and now the GOP Candidates are making their final push for Iowa.  According to the latest analysis by Real Clear Politics the Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus has Ron Paul in the lead (average of 3 major polls: Rasmussen, Insider Advantage and Public Policy Polling) with 22.3% of the likely voters.

  • Mitt Romney 21%,
  • Gingrich 14.7%,
  • Perry 12%,
  • Bachmann 8.7%,
  • Santorum 7.7% and
  • Huntsman at 4%.

At best Iowa is the starting point but offers only 28 delegates to the Presidential hopefuls.

In January we also have New Hampshire’s Primary on the 10th, followed by South Carolina on the 21st and we close off the month with Florida on January 31st.  These primaries and the Iowa Caucus will allocate 115 candidates to the Republican Convention.

The GOP has a total of 2288 delegates to be won during the primaries; the winner – theoretically – will need at least 50% + 1 vote, or 1,145 delegates.  Unlike in 2008 the delegates are not assigned in a “winner-take-all” format.

The early Primaries will begin the process of eliminating candidates; but the big first test will come on March 6, 2012 when Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Vermont and Virginia hold their primaries for a total of 438 delegates.  Prior to March 6th only 345 delegates will have been fought over at the polls.

According to the Center for Responsive Politics and OpenSecrets.org campaign financing as of September 30, 2011 (the last required report to date from all the campaigns) shows that Barack Obama’s presidential campaign – not including the DNC – has raised over $89 million.  The combined total of the major candidates for the GOP nomination is $83 million.  It is easy to say that Obama’s war chest is better than any of his potential opponents.  It will be interesting to see what the numbers look like after the Iowa Caucuses.





Cash on Hand

Mitt Romney (R)





Rick Perry (R)





Ron Paul (R)





Michele Bachmann (R)





Herman Cain (R)





Jon Huntsman (R)





Newt Gingrich (R)





Rick Santorum (R)






The Iowa Caucuses are going to tell more by who comes in second and third than by who wins it.  It has to propel the candidates to do well in New Hampshir but then South Carolina and Florida by the end of January.  I believe at that point we’ll have a good idea who the leaders are going to be and by the time Kansas votes on March 10th and Missouri on the 17th we’ll have a very clear picture of who the candidates most likely to win the nomination will be.

Respectfully Submitted,

The Lee’s Summit Conservative