The Trump Disorder

Posted by on April 3, 2016 11:58 am
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,
Categories: 2016 Campaign Col 2 General Links The Nation

picture of Trump Cruz Kasich 2016LEE’S SUMMIT, APRIL 3, 2016 – Donald Trump holds his own against the onslaught from establishment Republicans.  The outsider’s view – and I consider myself as far an outsider as you are – is that the political class only wants businessman’s money, not their participation.  It is OK to have the occasional Doctor in the House or the Senate, a few mildly successful business men (call them the token businessmen) but it is different when someone steps up and aspires to be President of the United States.

Steve Forbes ran for President in 1996 and 2000, a very successful businessman heading up his families Publishing business.  Forbes’ wealth pales in comparison to Trumps, and his style is that of a Economic Prognosticator:  Very intelligent, but not a great verbal communicator.

The Republican Party Feared a 3rd party run by Trump.

There is a long list of 3rd party candidates since 1832 most of them have filed – except for one – to achieve the presidency.  The lone exception is Theodore Roosevelt in 1912.

In 1992 we had one of the most viable 3rd party candidates in recent memory.  Ross Perot pulled so many votes from George Bush that we elected Bill Clinton.  In 2000 we had Ralph Nader run and he took votes from Al Gore and may have actually cost Gore the presidency.

The Republican Establishment focused on Trump and extracted a promise to not run a 3rd party campaign – which most likely would give the presidency to the Democrats, for at least 4 more years.

The republican party fears Trump as their nominee.

Up until the last 2 weeks, Trump seemed to be sailing straight for the nomination in Cleveland.  Cruz won here and there, Rubio dropped out after Florida, Kasich is in it to spoil it, so now we have a problem for the Republican leadership:  How do we stop Trump?

To misquote an often misquoted Star Trek reference:  Scotty, we need more money!

The party donors have rallied behind the “Stop The Donald” campaign and funded Super Pac’s to go after Trump.  All I can say is “Wow!”

The first Election I paid attention to was Ford versus Reagan in 1976.  Ford failed to obtain the total number of candidates needed prior to the convention.  But even then, the party did not turn so viciously against Ronald Reagan.

Gerald Ford, Nixon’s selected Vice President after Spiro Agnew had to resign from office took over for Nixon after the Watergate driven resignation.  Ford was the incumbent but never elected as President.  Ford won 26 State primaries and Reagan won 24.  By the time they headed to the convention Ford had 1,090 delegates and he needed 1130 to win the nomination:  9 delegates short.  Reagan had 1,030 (see Reference).

Reagan made a tactical mistake by announcing his Vice President which cost him critical support in the south and did not get him the north eastern delegates he was trying to obtain; and, in the end Ford won the most delegates with 1,187 to Reagan’s 1,070.

The 2016 Republican Party is in full scramble.  The stakes are huge, in their opinion.  No, no, it is not that the if Trump is the nominee that the Democrats win the presidency for four more years.  What is at stake is that the Republican Party has lost control of the primary process. Loss of control.  Loss of power.  That is the true reason they are trying all they can to block Trump.

Why do I think the real reason is power and not the election?

In the news we hear that Paul Ryan is positioning himself as a potential nominee; even though he has not run a single primary.  If Paul Ryan, or anyone other than Trump, Cruz or Kasich run they will be untested candidates that the Democrats would easily defeat.  So, if an outsider like me can figure that out; then the Politicos should know it as well.

Conclusion:  If they don’t care if they lose the election, so long as Trump does not, then it is not about winning the election:  it is simply that they don’t want to lose their supposed power.

Let’s see what happens in Wisconsin.  If Trump wins (though he is now behind by 10 points in the polls) then the path to 1,237 delegates is simpler for him.  If he loses badly in Wisconsin, this is going to be a very contested convention, akin to the 1976 Ford Reagan, the 1964 Goldwater Scranton Rockefeller, and the 1948 Dewey Taft Stassen conventions.

A bit of a warning, aside from the screw up by the Chicago Tribune (Dewey Wins) none of the people finally selected in a contentious Republican Convention has ever gone on to win the Presidency in that cycle.

The sad moral of the piece is this:  If you cannot unite your own party behind you; how do you expect to unite the country behind you and win the presidency.

Respectfully Submitted

The Lee’s Summit Conservative.