LEE’S SUMMIT, October 30, 2011 – Herman Cain’s and his 9-9-9 plan are reshaping the conversation in the GOP battle for the Party’s nomination. The no-nonsense approach of Herman Cain still outweighs his political inexperience and those likely to vote have him at 39% (down a bit from his 45% peak in the October 14th poll), with Romney still stuck in the high teens (down from 21% a week earlier). Gingrich has the biggest improvement going from 6% the previous week to 12% and in 3rd place. This is based on the Zogby Poll that was published on October 25th.
Ron Paul is at 9% and Rick Perry continues to fade with only 8% now in 5th place. Huntsman, Santorum and Bachmann are dropping too far in the polls and for the most part have stopped shaping the conversation.
Herman Cain’s greatest accomplishment is that he has completely shaped the conversation around his 9-9-9 plan and everyone has had to follow his lead. In the last couple of weeks, Perry announced his optional flat tax, Gingrich announced his 15% Fair tax, and the rest are either having to attack them, or come up with their own.
The next challenge for Herman Cain is to put more specifics to how he will create jobs. To say that the 9-9-9 plan alone will create jobs is insufficient in my point of view. The tax code is not the only problem in this country. He has spoken about regulations, but they are all talking about regulation reform – that’s not bold, and that’s not going to separate him from the pack. The repeal of ObamaCare is also the mantra of every GOP candidate.
Cain is at a significant disadvantage at this point in fundraising; but in October he is expected to announce that he raised $5 million, so the money is starting to come into the leader; even though the GOP leadership is still trying to find ways to discount the upstart from Georgia.
Mitt Romney is still everyone’s second choice. The polls indicate that as long as Americans have another choice they will pick them over Romney. In my opinion settling is not a good idea. We did that with McCain and look what happened there.
Romney’s continued change in position is not helping him much. The Perry attack during the last debate did not help matters when Romney responded “…I’m running for office for Pete’s sake…” while he explained it later, the fact is that the comment fits what most of us think of Romeny.
Romeny did make a good statement that Cain should understand: “…it takes more than a simple plan to solve the mess we are in…” and that is very true. Yet in Physics there is a “simplicity” rule that has proven correct time and time again. Einstein’s E=Mc2 is a very simple looking equation that explains a very complex interaction between matter and energy. Until he developed his equation things were so complex that it was impossible to fully grasp and use. Now we talk about atomic energy like it was as simple as turning on a light switch. The point: don’t dismiss simple solutions.
Gingrich is going from the “old has-been” to the man with ideas that are resonating. The debates have had a significant impact on Cain’s campaign; but now they are helping Newt Gingrich. His fiery style of presenting his ideas is finding a foothold in the American electorate. Since June Gingrich has been in the low single digits. Good ideas, but no one is listening. That is beginning to change.
Newt Gingrich jumped over perennial third place candidate Ron Paul and is now at 12%. This bodes well for Mr. Gingrich and his ideas. Many of us remember his charge in 1994 to gain control of the House of Representatives. He was able to take a National issue and make it a hometown issue. Now he seems to be doing it again. His poll numbers are worth watching over the next month to see where he, Cain and Romney stand at the end of November.
Ron Paul seems to have lost some steam in the last month. He is in single digits for the first time in the campaign and voters must be seeing options with candidates they believe are more electable than Ron Paul.
Ron Paul has served an invaluable purpose in the debates. He brings up topics that must be discussed. He brings clarity to some issues and simply by his questions he gets everyone thinking. This is very valuable for all of us political junkies who follow the elections process. Libertarians are a unique group of people. I happen to think in many ways closer to a Libertarian than a Republican in the sense that small government serves the people best, sucks up less budget to run itself, and passes less nuisance laws and regulations.
Ron Paul and I part ways in the Isolationist mindset he has. The United States can no longer afford to be isolated from the rest of the world. Yet, it must learn to stay out of other countries affairs when a clear national objective is not self-evident.
Rick Perry reminds me of the old movie On The Waterfront, shot in the 60’s in Hoboken New Jersey starring Marlon Brando. His most memorable line is delivered in the backseat of a car as he pleads “…I could have been a contender.”
The meteoric rise of Rick Perry was based on hope and faith that he could be the Tea Party’s candidate and take the mantle away from Michelle Bachmann. He jumped into the scene and we started to get to know the real Rick Perry and his aura did not last long. His debate performances have been lackluster at best, and misguided at worst. His personal attack on Romney did nothing to help Perry.
The biggest difference between Perry and Cain is that Perry constantly talks about what he did (past tense) in Texas. That got him the early lead. Now people want to see what he is going to do for the country and his optional flat tax did nothing to boost his image as a leader. Why? Because he was “following” Herman Cain. That’s not leadership.
Huntsman has never truly been received by the electorate as a true potential candidate and his numbers show it.
Michelle Bachman lost her voice, or better said has not allowed her voice to mature. She was the Tea Party voice in Congress by creating the Tea Party Caucus. She stayed the course and fought hard for Tea Party small government principles. This was a good platform to launch from.
However, Bachmann has not moved from there. In her debates she constantly talks about what she did in congress. She’s not running for congress, she’s running for the chance to run for the Presidency of the United States of America. We want to hear what she’s going to do for the country, and honestly running as a small business owner is not enough when you have a Herman Cain to compare her to.
November is going to be a very interesting month in American politics.
The Lee’s Summit Conservative.