Pleasant Hill, April 8, 2020 – Data collection, data summarization, and data accuracy are of paramount importance. If we don’t get the numbers right, then we have no idea what to expect.
Yesterday’s numbers did not make sense. I decided to wait and publish today. My thought being that the full charts would make more sense today than they did yesterday.
Please understand, I get all my data from the same source.
Let’s look at the entire state for the period between March 7 and April 8
On Sunday (April 5th) things looked promising. The trend was flat and then a bit down. The Sunday number, which looked low, was 76 new confirmed cases.
It made sense that the numbers would be slightly down on Sunday. I waited to see the numbers on Monday. Look at that jump. It was up over 959 cases. We hit a peak of 3,326 confirmed cases – or at least that’s what the State site said.
Now we go to a role coaster steeper and meaner than the ones at Worlds of Fun, or even Cedar Point Ohio. On tuesday we were down to 3,037 cases. Down 289 confirmations; or, maybe we lost 289 confirmations? Who knows for sure, but the numbers did not make sense.
Now, on April 8, the numbers went back up to 3,326. Just look at that roller coaster.
It is highly unlikely that these numbers truly had such wild oscillations. The true swing is probably closer to the 319.67 average if you look at 4/8 and 4/5 and just figure the difference and get the average.
By definition, averages are not correct, since half of the numbers fall above and the other half fall below.
I truly wonder why such important data, on a virus that has shut down the economy of the United States and most of the rest of the world, we cannot get good numbers to work from.
If you find this helpful, share it so that others may see where we are in our fight against the spread of COVID-19. You can see the raw data at the Missouri Department of Health and Senior Services website.
Stay safe, stay healthy and most of all stay positive.
Respectfully Submitted
The Lee’s Summit Conservative
