Pleasant Hill, April 7, 2020 – The number continue to move so today we want to present the numbers based on the COVID-19 Health Care Utilization dashboard.
In the last 24-hours (4/6 to 4/7) we saw and increase of 315 COVID-19 cases.
The deaths had an above normal increase in the same 24-hour period. Keep in mind that this number represents what was happening to our population some fourteen days ago or a bit longer.
The next question has to be: If we get sick with COVID-19 can the hospital’s handle it?
Missouri hospitals, using the 129 that reported, appear to have 33% of the beds available. Looking at the Intensive Care Units (ICU) there are 35% available beds as of 4/7/2020.
Putting the above into perspective, there are 3,037 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the state of Missouri, and 508 cases have had to enter the hospital. This is just under 17% of all confirmed cases end up in the hospital.
Using these percentages, and assuming a linear model – a flat rate of increase – Missouri could handle up to 4,473 additional cases. This simplistic math assumes no current patient leaves the ICU, and that seventeen percent of all new confirmed cases all go to ICU. Consider this math the worst case scenario. The reality is that most COVID-19 cases leave ICU at some point.
It is important that we put all the above into some perspective. The dashboard shows the increase in hospitalizations over the last 24-hours in the following chart.
Tomorrow we’ll post the chart again that shows how the rate of increase in cases is doing. The thing everyone is looking for is the flattening of the new cases, the rate of increase from the day before.
If you find this helpful, share it so that others may see where we are in our fight against the spread of COVID-19. You can see the raw data at the Missouri Department of Health and Senior Services website.
Stay safe, stay healthy and most of all stay positive.
The Lee’s Summit Conservative